Turnout
Expected is JEFF's projection as the polls stand today.
Low and High shift every race 3 points toward Republicans or Democrats, about the size of a
typical polling miss, to show how the map moves if turnout breaks one way.
Projections by JEFFJEFF, the Journalistic Election Forecast Formula, estimates where each race will land on Election Day. Every race is modeled on its own. It starts with the last result, adjusts for how much the country has shifted since 2024, then leans on the race's own polls, giving the most weight to the newest.